The Democreeps have been oh so confident of taking back control of the House of Representatives and, possibly, the Senate, as well. Their enthusiasm was not unfounded. Historically, in every midterm election since the Civil War, the party in power (President in office of the same party) has lost, on average, 32 seats in the House and two in the Senate. Only 24 are needed to flip the House and 2 to flip the Senate. Also their base is all het up, not because of Democrat party initiatives (can’t think of any), but because they are seething with hated of Donald Trump.
However, the statistic upon which they have leaned most heavily is the so-called “generic ballot.” The generic ballot is a poll question that asks whether registered voters would vote for Democrats or Republicans for Congress, and historically it’s been a decent predictor. In the week ending December 17, 2017 Democrats led Republicans in the generic ballot by a whooping margin of 14.5% (46.7% for Democrats and 32.2% for Republicans).
That all sounds bad for the Republican Party, but wait… Reuter’s, a well respected polling institution, and one that is considered “Center” in political views has published its most recent generic ballot survey. (It is better to click on the link to see this interactive posting of the survey data over time.)
For the week ending May 20, Republicans are at 40.7 percent while Democrats have slipped to 34.5 percent. The Republicans have taken a six point lead! That’s a 20-point swing in less than 6 months!
Of course, I’m not saying that Republicans are “out of the woods,” but the Democrats must be sweating bullets right now! (Oh, I take that back. Democrats aren’t allowed to own bullets.)