What is the biggest entitlement reform ever? “Trumpcare.”

I am proud to be a Republican. But if there is one thing that really irks me about my Party it is the constant battle among our “leaders,” each of whom wants to state “I am more conservative than he/she is!” “I am a bigger budget hawk!” “I want to spend more for defense that Senator (fill in the blank) does!” And very important for this discussion, “I want to reform entitlements to a greater degree than (fill in the blank) does!”

I like a good argument as much as the next blogger. However, repealing and replacing Obamacare is necessary for the health (pun intended) of our nation.

Douglas Holtz-Eakin was Director of the Congressional Budget Office under President George W. Bush. He is a well known budget hawk. Furthermore, I would not describe him as a Trump “fan.” He was interviewed on the Journal Editorial Report regarding the repeal and replacement of Obamacare vis a vis the recent CBO report.

Regarding the 24 million who will “lose insurance” by 2026:

  • We need to compare next year under Obamacare to the current Republican replacement plan
  • Next year nearly all of Obamacare is intact, except that the mandate to purchase insurance has been eliminated by President Trump’s executive order.
  • The same subsidies and the same insurance regulations will remain in place sans the mandate.
  • CBO says 5 million will choose not to buy insurance.
  • Further, 6 million will choose NOT TO PARTICIPATE IN THE FREE MEDICAID PROGRAM!

One must reasonably ask whether these 11 million have chosen this path because they see themselves as better off than they would be by purchasing Obamacare insurance or joining Medicaid? The logical conclusion is that they see the choice as better for themselves. A critical point is that Obamacare DOES NOT PROVIDE BETTER HEALTHCARE, just more insurance (and more expensive insurance with fewer choices, at that)!

The next point is that there is virtually no chance that Medicaid can survive in its current state for 10 years. It’s broke. Therefore, one would need to compare the next iteration of Medicaid to “Trumpcare,” not compare it to today’s Obamacare. As well, the original CBO report on Obamacare believed that in this coming sign-up period 12-16 million more Americans would get health insurance than did. Not exactly a stellar record.

So let’s look at the at the CBO prediction:

  • 2 million fewer Americans in the individual market (essentially a rounding error).
  • 7 million fewer in the employer market.
  • 14 million fewer in Medicaid (but as noted above, Medicaid would necessarily need to change even if Obamacare was left intact).

Here is the most important takeaway! The CBO predicts federal spending on healthcare to fall by $1.2 trillion over 10 years (yes with a “T”). That is despite the fact that “Trumpcare” repeals $900 billion in taxes. The deficit would fall despite a large tax cut.

The budget hawks are all complaining that the Trump budget does not address entitlements. That is complete nonsense. Mr. Holtz-Eakin states categorically, “This (Trumpcare) is the single biggest entitlement reform ever contemplated!” Let us not forget that Obamacare is a massive entitlement. And let us not forget that Obamacare will implode.

Roy Filly





About Roy Filly

Please read my first blog in which I describe myself and my goals.
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4 Responses to What is the biggest entitlement reform ever? “Trumpcare.”

  1. Bill Grisham CPA says:

    Repeal of Obamacare is NEEDED! Replacement of it is NOT! We don’t need another government controlled industry in a supposedly Free Country! And if the government actually controls your health care, what is not beyond their reach? I have my own doubts about the CBO’s estimates of people’s actions regarding health care.

    • Roy Filly says:

      So, no more Medicare? No more Medicaid? Not that I wouldn’t say, “No more.” It’s difficult to erase 80 plus years of socialist “creep” into American lives. Basically can’t be done.

  2. trailbee says:

    I lived in SoCal and in a neighborhood that was “Asian ethnic” oriented. It was middle upper class and ages ran from birth to close to 100. One thing was certain, most of these people chose, CHOSE, not to have health insurance. They paid for their healthcare on a “one time” basis. If they needed ER care, they paid the bill when it arrived, or paid at the hospital. I would bet my last dollar that the Asian community in S.F., and anywhere else in the United States, had the same issue. They saved their money, tried not to get sick, flew under the radar, and paid their bills when due.
    When Obamacare was forced on us all, the hue and cry of the Administration was that thirty million people had no healthcare, and/or insurance. I always believed that there was deliberate dishonesty about the thirty million poor souls and their need for Obamacare. Remember Jonathan Gruber? Remember Ezekiel Rahm? Gruber said the whole plan was a scam. Zeke said that people shouldn’t even live after 76, and made it more difficult for those of us who are living past that threshold to get serious healthcare. He WANTED us to die.
    We are now at a crossroads – how to repair an unrepairable problem. At what point will all this dishonesty stop? Will we ever be able to figure out who really needs what? Who is well enough and just needs a cushion for an emergency? I am getting very tired of this sham, be it on the left or the right. They both, as American political parties, got us to this point, and it is time to stop this dishonesty!

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