The talking heads are having a field day after release of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report on the repeal and replace efforts to end Obamacare. Some Republicans suggest that they should just let Obamacare implode. I agree that Obamacare will implode and that it will be a major black eye for the Democrat Party. However, it would be an abdication of Congress’ responsibility and mean-spirited.
There were many positive aspects of the CBO report. But, as is typical, the main takeaway from the CBO report by the “lame-stream media” is that 24 million Americans would be uninsured sometime in the future – a future too far distant for accurate prediction. OK. Let’s give the CBO the benefit of our doubts (they were off by 12 million when making their Obamacare prognostication) and analyze that prediction from the perspective of the 2018 election.
Who would be uninsured? Two groups would be the most likely to be uninsured. Group 1: those that do not want health insurance (young healthy adults who see it as a cost without benefit), but were forced to purchase it under Obamacare and will no longer do so once Obamacare is a footnote in history. Group 2: those that got it for free and refuse to spend even one cent of their own money to purchase health insurance.
How will these two groups vote in 2018. Group 1 will be pleased with the Republican changes to health care. Group 2 will be very unhappy. But let’s face it; Group 2 are “dyed-in-the-wool-give-it-to-me-free” Democrats. They would never vote for a Republican under any circumstance. Group 1 will vote Republican.
You can let me know what you think of my analysis. And, it’s OK to strongly disagree. I have a thick skin after writing a political blog these past 6 years.