FYI.


The oldest president to be sworn in was Ronald Reagan for his second term (so the graph below has an inaccurate title). Trump will be the oldest first term president sworn in to the office. However, he was only slightly older than Hillary. I love the Reagan quote (when asked about his age during a presidential debate): “I want you to know that I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s youth and inexperience.” Even Mondale laughed at that zinger!

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It does not appear that American voters count age as a negative. When Reagan was the oldest candidate ever to run for the office (for his second term) the American voters did not think he was too old. The word “landslide” is often inappropriately used in elections, but not the re-election of Ronald Reagan. He lost only one state – Minnesota, Walter Mondale’s home state.

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screen-shot-2017-01-10-at-8-43-04-amMoving on: the economics of the Obama legacy are seen below in graph form.

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He is the first president to never see more than 3% growth in the GDP. It is true that unemployment decreased quite significantly, and I do not mean to belittle this. But, importantly, American voters saw “jobs” as one of the most important issues in the recent election. How is that possible, ask you? Because, answer I, other measures of employment do not paint so rosy a picture.

The U-6 measure of “unemployment” is a measure of total unemployment. It adds in all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part-time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force. Persons marginally attached to the labor force are those who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not currently looking for work. Persons employed part-time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule.

The U-6 measure showed the unemployment rate to be 9.3% in November when the election was held. It appears that the electorate “felt” that statistic more so than 4.7% figure typically quoted.

Roy Filly

 

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About Roy Filly

Please read my first blog in which I describe myself and my goals.
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