While I would agree that everyone uses statists in less than perfectly honest ways to make their point – that is, everyone but the Rugged Individualist – the global warming alarmists are particularly culpable. Here’s the latest.
Below are the headlines from CNN and the New York Times:
- 2015 is warmest year on record, NOAA and NASA say (CNN)
- 2015 was the hottest year historical record, scientists say (NYT)
So, let’s take a look! Indeed, 2015 was minisculely warmer than 1998 although a lot of CO2 went into the atmosphere between those two dates, and temperatures were lower for 18 years. While 2015 was possibly the “hottest” on record (less than 0.1 degree Centigrade), the statement is, in the main, misleading.
[Source: Big drop in temperatures according to UAH, by Paul Homewood]
The headline as easily could have been, “Second largest 2-month drop in global average satellite temperatures” or, alternatively, “ Largest 2-month drop in tropical average satellite temperatures.” In the tropics, there was a record fast 2-month cooling of -0.56 deg. C, just edging out -0.55 deg. C in June 1998. With what impression are you left depending on the headline chosen?
The warming was due to a particularly strong El Nino and the cooling is due to the weakening El Nino and approaching La Nina conditions by mid-summer or early fall. And, by the by, what was happening in 1998 to cause the temperature spike? Yes, indeed, that was also an El Nino year. Further, the – at the time “record cooling” – was, again, due to the weakening El Nino and approaching La Nina conditions. Hmm.
How long have we been having El Ninos, ask you? Well since long before the industrial age, answer I. (Red upward spikes are El Ninos and blue downward spikes are La Ninas.)
Draw your own conclusions. To my mind it is difficult to see a pattern that screams “man-caused global warming.”
[From the Homewood article] To put the numbers into some sort of perspective, the 10-year average temperature anomaly is 0.16C. With most models predicting La Nina conditions by the autumn, we can expect temperatures to tumble a lot further by the end of the year.
As you can see by looking through the tumult of lines, the yellow line (Dynamic average prediction) and the green line (Statistical average) by approximately minus 0.5 C – a wipeout of the increase!
And thanks to HP for sending this to me.