What if the “Remain” vote had won in the UK?


As my readers know, I was pleased with the Brexit vote and hope that it portends a revolt against the establishment in the US during the November elections (Hillary Clinton being the quintessential “establishment” politician). Hillary promises “four more years” of Obamanomics, Obama immigration policy, and a war plan that isn’t working.

[Source: Europe is a minefield, by John Mauldin]

John Mauldin points out a few things with which the EU would still need to deal had the UK not voted to “Leave,” but to “Remain”:

  • If Remain had won, refugees from Africa and the Middle East, many with the UK as their destination, would still be struggling across the Mediterranean or taking land routes into Eastern Europe. The EU would still be desperately trying to stem the tide and to accommodate those whom it can’t stop.
  • If Remain had won, thousands of refugees would still be dying as their rickety boats capsized and sunk.
  • If Remain had won, Greece would still be chafing under EU-imposed austerity as its economy endures depression-like conditions. Spain and Portugal would still be wondering if they are next.
  • If Remain had won, Poland and Hungary would still be fighting against EU mandates that disrupt their internal affairs.
  • If Remain had won, several EU governments would still be engaged in deficit spending that exceeds EU guidelines, while the EU’s inability to stop them continued to expose its inability to enforce its decisions.
  • If Remain had won, the European Central Bank would still be holding interest rates below zero, buying private assets with public money, and propping up insolvent banks that must fail if the Eurozone economy is to ever recover.
  • If Remain had won, Russia and NATO would still be facing off in the Baltic Sea, forcing already stretched governments to boost defense spending.
  • If Remain had won, ISIS-sponsored or ISIS-inspired terrorists would still be plotting attacks like the ones in Paris and Brussels.
  • If Remain had won, border checks would still be in force within the supposedly free-travel Schengen zone countries, making one of the EU’s greatest achievements into a mockery.
  • If Remain had won, sizable minorities or even majorities in other European countries would still be agitating for their own exit opportunities. Catalonia would still be trying to separate from Spain. The Lega Norde in Italy would still be agitating for Northern Italy to secede. The Walloons and the Flemish would still want to sunder their ties with Belgium. Marine Le Pen would still be gaining strength in France.
  • If Remain had won, the Supreme Court of Austria’s ruling that an extremely close presidential vote must be taken again would still stand, opening up the possibility that a far-right-wing party might take control of a major European country. The frustration over immigration and immigrants is growing. Nationalism, as opposed to loyalty to the European Union, is a rising tide that shows no sign of receding.
  • If Remain had won, Italian banks would still be down some €400 billion, an enormous proportion of Italy’s GDP. German banks would still be teetering. I’ve written about both before. What I haven’t mentioned is how desperate the situation is becoming for European insurance companies, which are even larger than the banks. Arguably, many are in worse shape in a negative-rate regime.
  • If Remain had won, the growing criticism of the ECB would still be growing, and negative rates would still be distorting European financial markets.

One could say that a winning “Remain” vote would have dragged the UK down with the rest of the ship!

Roy Filly

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About Roy Filly

Please read my first blog in which I describe myself and my goals.
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