A graph day – on dependency.


Republicans believe the Democrat Party thrives on making the citizenry dependent on government. I concur. Guess what? The Dems are winning BIG TIME. Check out the following graphs.

[Source: Delta Force, by John Mauldin]

As I have said many times, your future belongs to demographics. An excellent measure of dependency is a comparison of how many working age individuals there are when compared to those who are dependent – elderly or children. You can see from the graph below that increasing longevity and falling birthrates are implacable forces that cannot be turned aside whether or not Democrats win elections.

160501-03

 

 

Look at the graph below. Ouch! Italy, Japan, and Korea are toast!

160501-04

We should be concerned. But we may as well start throwing dirt on the graves of Japan, South Korea, Germany, Italy and Spain! Did you notice that these were all American allies.

160501-05

Why have men been dropping out of the labor force since 1950? Much of this is due to the retirement of older men, but not all of it. This should have devastated our GDP growth. But it didn’t. Look at the graph that follows.

160501-07

Below is the labor participation rate for women. They doubled their workforce participation rate over the same period. Whew!

160501-08

We can jabber on about many things, but to increase GDP growth one or both of two things must happen. Why is that, ask you? Because, answer I, there are only two factors in the equation.

ΔGDP = ΔPopulation + ΔProductivity

Without growth in either population (i.e., increasing the workforce) or a change in productivity, our GDP will remain stagnant. The former is unlikely in the face of the demographics noted above. As productivity has also been stagnant, we need to unburden the work environment from the heavy hand of REGULATION!

Do you really think Hillary will do that?

Roy Filly

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About Roy Filly

Please read my first blog in which I describe myself and my goals.
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One Response to A graph day – on dependency.

  1. Flayer says:

    Obamacare should take care of the increasing life span “problem.” Remember that Erlich was so wrong so prediction are not iron-cast.

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