In Bill Clinton’s 1991 run for the presidency, James Carville famously coined the campaign slogan, “It’s the economy, stupid!” The campaign, which focused on the “slogan,” propelled Clinton to the presidency. Republicans forget that George H. W. Bush had a 90% approval rating after the first Gulf War. What could possibly have stopped his reelection? IT’S THE ECONOMY, STUPID! The same slogan will likely STOP the current Clinton from occupying the Whitehouse.
The Obama administration published its “outlook” for the US economy (2016 Economic Report of the President). Just ask the presidential advisors (or the President, himself) and you will learn that our economy is the “envy of the world.” If that is so, then why does the most recent Gallup daily tracking poll of US citizen’s view of our economy show the following results:
- Getting better 43%
- Getting worse 50%
- What does “economy” mean? I majored in gender studies at Harvard: 7%
I simply laugh when paid operatives of the administration publish “pie in the sky” economic outlooks. The American voter appears to be far more prescient than the President’s economic buffoons.
The following economic forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) represent a case in point.
There are three points to take away from the above graph. First, every estimate was “pie in the sky.” Second, each estimate predicted growth and there was none. Third, even their “pie-in-the-sky” forecasts of growth have declined year-over-year. Should we believe their forecast? Should we believe the 2016 Economic Report of the President?
The second graph… well, it shows the fallacies to an even greater degree. Could economists be worse at making predictions? Pay special attention to the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China). These vaunted powerhouses of economic growth are not doing well… and the IMF was off by 7 – 14% when “predicting” their growth over the past 5 years. Do you have any idea what that would mean in a US economy that grew a paltry 0.7% in the last quarter?
My friends, I have faith in the American voters. They may want “free stuff,” and they may not understand that there is “no free lunch,” but they do understand that their paycheck and their bills are telling a different story than Hillary.
The graphs were published in:
Five Trends That Will Shape the Future of the U.S. Economy, by Nick Timiraos